No change in EUR/USD's outlook after last week's sideway trading. Rise from 1.0461 could still be in progress and above 1.1379 temporary top will target 1.1466 and above. But after all, such rise is viewed as a corrective move. Hence, in that case, we'd expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.3993 to 1.0461 at 1.0181 to bring reversal. Meanwhile, break of 1.0818 will suggest that such corrective rise is completed and turn outlook bearish.
In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 1.6039 long term top is viewed as a corrective pattern. Fall from 1.3993 is the third leg of such pattern. A medium term bottom is in place at 1.0461, ahead of 100% projection of 1.6039 to 1.2329 from 1.3993 at 1.0283. Some consolidations could be seen. But after all, break of 1.2042 support turned resistance is needed to indicate medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish. We'd still favor another fall to extend the down trend.
In the long term picture, price actions from 1.6039 (2008 high) is viewed as a corrective move with fall from 1.3993 as the first leg. We'll start to look for bottoming signal below 100% projection of 1.6039 to 1.2329 from 1.3993 at 1.0283. However, sustained trading below 1.0283 will open up the case for a new low below 0.8223.
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