Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

​Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Steady ahead of a Crucial Weekend for Greece

Euro remains steady in range as markets await a crucial meeting for Greece in the coming weekend. There are still obstacles to the agreement between Greece and the international creditors including pensions, sales tax hikes, corporate taxes and debt relief. Meanwhile, it's reported that IMF, ECB and EC are proposing a five month program extensions and EUR 15.5b of funding to resolve the current deadlock. And that would extend the program till November, allowing more time for negotiation. Also, there are reports that even if Greece miss the EUR 1.6b payment to IMF next Tuesday, IMF would regard that to be in "arrears" rather than "default". And in that case, such payment failure might not trigger wave of defaults on other loans and is unlikely to cause a catastrophe. In any case, focus will remain on the developments and the common currency could have a rough ride on coming Monday.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1163; (P) 1.1195 (R1) 1.1237; More....

With a temporary low in place at 1.1134, intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral first. We're favoring the case the corrective rebound from 1.0461 is completed. Below 1.1134 will target 1.0818 support first. Break will confirm this bearish view and bring retest of 1.0461 low. Meanwhile, above 1.1436 will extend the corrective rise. In that case, we'd expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.3993 to 1.0461 at 1.1810 to bring reversal.

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EURUSD Technical Outlook
USDJPY Technical Outlook
GBPUSD Technical Outlook
USDCHF Technical Outlook
USDCAD Technical Outlook
AUDUSD Technical Outlook
EURJPY Technical Outlook
EURGBP Technical Outlook
EURCHF Technical Outlook
GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Economic Indicators Update



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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) May 350M -50M 123M 183M
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate May 3.30% 3.30% 3.30%

23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y May 4.80% 3.70% -1.30%

23:30 JPY National CPI Core Y/Y May 0.10% 0.00% 0.30%

23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Jun 0.10% 0.10% 0.20%

8:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Y/Y May 5.00% 5.40% 5.30%

14:00 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Jun F 96.1 94.6 94.6


Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency continued to meet resistance at indicated level of 1.1220 and offers are still noted at 1.1220, 1.1235-45 and 1.1280, more sell orders are reported at 1.1300 and 1.1330, selling interest is tipped at 1.1350 and 1.1365. On the downside, some bids are seen at 1.1150-55 and 1.1130 (stops below 1.1120), buy orders are expected at 1.1100, 1.1080 and 1.1050, buying interest should emerge around 1.1030 and 1.1000.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.5800

Cable's rebound after holding above this week's low at 1.5667 suggests near term upside risk remains for retracement of this week's selloff, hence gain to 1.5780 and possibly towards resistance at 1.5803 cannot be ruled out but reckon upside would be limited and bring retreat later, below said support would signal decline from 1.5930 top has resumed for weakness towards 1.5615-20 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5422-1.5930) first.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.1270

Euro's recovery after finding support at 1.1154 yesterday has retained our view that further consolidation above this week's low at 1.1135 would be seen and corrective bounce to 1.1235 is likely, however, reckon upside would be limited to 1.1265-70 and bring another decline later, below said minor support at 1.1154 would bring retest of 1.1135, break there would extend the fall from 1.1436 to 1.1125-30 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0819-1.1436) and then 1.1100

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
Suggested Readings


Fundamental Highlights
Here We Go Again - Third Greek Bailout Offered...
Focus Remains on Greece as Default Risk Grows
Japan's Inflation On The Rise, RBNZ Releases Statement
More Erratic Trading As Greek Stalemate Continues
Chinese Equity Sell-Off Continues, NZD Lower

Technical Highlights
DAX: Stage Set for a Big Move?
GOLD Falls In Impulsive Fashion, Eyes At 1150
Crude: All Eyes On Iran
AUDUSD - Holds Above Key Supports
EURJPY Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis

Tinjauan Pasar - 2015/10/03

Tinjauan Pasar - 2015/10/03

Saham AS menguat pada Senin karena pasar bull merayakan ulang tahun keenam. The S & P 500 naik 0,4%. Saham naik 1,6% setelah penurunan S & P 500 pekan lalu karena lebih baik dari laporan pekerjaan diharapkan memicu ekspektasi pelaku pasar 'bahwa Federal Reserve akan menaikkan suku bunga pada bulan Juni. Pasar saham AS jatuh pada Maret 2009 dan kehilangan lebih dari setengah nilainya dari puncaknya pada bulan Oktober 2007. Ini memiliki lebih dari tiga kali lipat nilai sejak itu didukung oleh program pelonggaran kuantitatif Federal Reserve. Dolar melemah Senin karena investor membeli kembali pound murah dan euro setelah mereka turun tajam pada Jumat. Hari ini pukul 14.00 CET Federasi Nasional Bisnis Independen Indeks Bisnis Februari Kecil akan dirilis pada AS. Pukul 15:00 CET Januari Job Openings dan Perputaran Tenaga Kerja Ringkasan akan dirilis oleh Departemen Tenaga Kerja. Pada saat yang sama Januari Grosir Persediaan akan dipublikasikan. Prospek tentatif positif untuk dolar.


Saham Eropa jatuh pada Senin karena Bank Sentral Eropa memulai program pembelian obligasi yang melibatkan pembelian bulanan 60 miliar euro ($ 65000000000) senilai obligasi, dan menteri keuangan kawasan euro mengatakan usulan Yunani diserahkan kepada kreditur internasional untuk mencegah default jatuh pendek apa yang diajukan dua pekan lalu. Stoxx Europe 600 berakhir 0,3% lebih rendah. Investor mengambil keuntungan setelah rally pasar sejak awal tahun ini untuk mengantisipasi program pelonggaran kuantitatif ECB mengangkat FTSEurofirst 300 lebih dari 14 persen. Menteri Keuangan Yunani Yanis Varoufakis mengatakan pada akhir pekan bahwa Yunani mungkin mengadakan referendum mengenai apakah akan menerima persyaratan keuangan-bantuan kreditur 'jika pemerintah memutuskan mereka tidak dapat diterima.
Nikkei mencatat penurunan paling tajam dalam sebulan pada hari Senin karena data menunjukkan PDB tumbuh lebih lambat dari perkiraan sebelumnya pada kuartal keempat tahun lalu. Nikkei naik hari ini karena yen melemah lebih lanjut terhadap dolar, yang mendorong saham auto eksportir seperti Honda Motor Co dan Toyota Motors Corp
Data yang dirilis di China hari ini menunjukkan inflasi harga konsumen pada bulan Februari naik lebih cepat dari yang diharapkan, sementara harga produsen turun 4,8 persen, didorong oleh harga komoditas yang lebih lemah. Kenaikan harga konsumen sebagian besar disebabkan kenaikan biaya makanan dan transportasi berlaku Tahun Baru Cina, dan pelaku pasar mengharapkan Bank Rakyat China akan memotong patokan suku bunga deposito dan pinjaman lagi kuartal berikutnya karena ekonomi melambat.
Harga minyak beringsut lebih tinggi pada hari Senin setelah turun tajam pekan lalu karena dolar yang lebih kuat dan meningkatnya pasokan AS. Sementara dolar yang lebih kuat membebani harga komoditas, pelaku pasar mengharapkan permintaan minyak akan memperluas pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia pulih di belakang program stimulus diadopsi oleh banyak otoritas moneter dan pertumbuhan AS terus. Data perdagangan untuk Februari dirilis di Cina menunjukkan bahwa impor minyak mentah ekonomi terbesar kedua di dunia selama bulan naik 11% menjadi 25.550.000 ton. Laporan Goldman Sachs pada hari Senin menunjukkan bahwa sementara perusahaan diharapkan berjangka minyak tetap rendah lagi perkiraan sebelumnya untuk $ 40 minyak mungkin terlalu rendah.
Harga gas alam turun sebagai ramalan cuaca diprediksi di atas suhu normal di banyak AS.


Harga emas naik untuk pertama kalinya bulan ini sebagai usulan reformasi Yunani sebagai imbalan dari perpanjangan bailout dianggap cukup oleh Eurogroup.