EURUSD Daily Analysis: Its been a fundamentally eventful start to the year for the global economy’s central banks – the SNB removing its peg, the ECB announcing a 1.1 trillion euro stimulus package, and now Yellen privately hinting to US lawmakers that a rise in interest rates might not come as soon as the markets expect. The technicals, as usual, reflect this recent uncertainty in the form of a triangle consolidation pattern (pennant) over the course of the week.
We remain technically bearish on the pair under its 10-day moving average (it has been under this level since mid-December) at 1.1350, though we really need a break above 1.1450 (above the 61.8% retracement level) to confirm the medium-term downtrend has ended.
4h Chart
Long-term Trend Analysis Chart
Today’s SwingPRO Signal: Flat before the weekend on mixed technicals.
*CandlePRO: CandlePRO can be used in conjunction with our daily analysis and “our preferred trades.” For example, if we prefer “going short” or “selling a rally” then we would look for bearish candlestick signals after a rally or near resistance levels. Alternative if we prefer “going long” or “buying a dip” then we would look for bullish candlestick signals on price drops or near support levels.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Fri Jan 30 |
00:05 | GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (JAN) | 1 | -2 | -4 |
| 05:00 | JPY Housing Starts (YoY) (DEC) | -14.7% | -14.8% | -14.3% | |
| 05:00 | JPY Annualized Housing Starts (DEC) | 0.883M | 0.900M | 0.888M | |
| 07:00 | EUR German Retail Sales (YoY) (DEC) | 3.6% | -0.8% | ||
| 08:00 | CHF KOF Leading Indicator (JAN) | 94.7 | 98.7 | ||
| 09:30 | GBP Net Consumer Credit (DEC) | 1.2B | 1.3B | ||
| 09:30 | GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (DEC) | 1.9B | 2.1B | ||
| 09:30 | GBP Mortgage Approvals (DEC) | 59.0K | 59.0K | ||
| 10:00 | EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (DEC) | 11.5% | 11.5% | ||
| 10:00 | EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (JAN) | -0.5% | -0.2% | ||
| 10:00 | EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index – Core (YoY) (JAN A) | 0.7% | 0.7% | ||
| 13:30 | USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (4Q A) | 3.0% | 5.0% | ||
| 13:30 | USD Personal Consumption (4Q A) | 4.0% | 3.2% | ||
| 13:30 | USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index (4Q A) | 0.9% | 1.4% | ||
| 13:30 | USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (4Q A) | 1.1% | 1.4% | ||
| 15:00 | USD U. of Michigan Confidence (JAN F) | 98.2 | 98.2 |
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